The global semiconductor industry could be set for five years of uninterrupted growth according to Malcolm Penn, Chief Executive Officer of market research outfit, Future Horizons.
Speaking at his company's Semiconductor Industry Forecast Seminar in London, Penn (pictured) forecast 8% growth in global semiconductor sales in 2012. "That's the safe bet," he observed. If, and it may be a big If, the semiconductor market bounces back as it did after the Lehmann Bros collapse in 2008, growth could climb as high as 20%.
"The indicators are there," said Penn. "Semiconductor demand has not declined, and average selling prices (ASPs) are increasing, and there has been an inventory burnoff in 2011, just as it was post Lehmann."
Penn expects a slow start in Q1 2012 when sales will contract 2% against Q1 2011 followed by a bounce back which starts with 8% growth in Q2, a 15% surge in the traditionally strong Q3, before slowing to 5% in Q4.
Penn is certain there will be growth in 2012, dismissing negative forecasts as "impossible". He indicates strong sales growth in the first quarter at TSMC, the world's dominant semiconductor foundry company. "Their Q1 is everyone else's Q2. If they see a strong Q1, then everyone else is expecting a strong Q2."
He continued, "If 2012 bounces back,2013 will be barnstorming, and could grow by more than 25%."
Penn conceded he is not that optimistic, and predicts a still none too shabby 20% growth in 2013, followed by 16% growth in 2014. Impetus will then slow delivering a 3% uptick in 2015 and 7% in 2016.
As Penn stresses this assumes no great economic and business ineptness (could be a stretch!) or natural disasters which affected the global industry in 2011.
Comments