Top industry executives set aside their holiday shopping when the Disti Blog questions landed on their desks so we can all learn about their views on just how bad it was in 2009 and whether there are any portents for fairer climes in 2010. I'll keep these on top of the posts right through the holiday until the New Year so you can dip in and out if you don't fancy reading them all in one go.
Miguel Fernandez, President, Silica
Review 2009 for us. As awful as it looked or not as bad as painted?
Yes and no. The market dropped by more than 20% quarter on quarter sequentially, which was painful for everyone, but the industry overreacted in cutting capacity which is leading to the leadtime issues we are now seeing in certain product areas. A modest recovery started in July and has extended into this quarter, and looks to continue into the early part of the new year.
How do you view prospects for 2010? Do you foresee any hurdles to the potential growth next year e.g. a double dip recession, lengthening lead times?
Early signs are much more positive than we could have hoped for, with January – March looking encouraging though perhaps slowing down slightly for the following quarter. Whether things will slow down later in the year or continue to recover is anybody’s guess. Personally, I’m optimistic about the year to come, as long as we don’t see a repetition of the kind of instability in the financial sector which sparked off the downturn.
What will make 2010 exciting for your company?
Many more design starts than there were in 2009 is the short answer – and there is every prospect that this will be fulfilled. As the industry recovers, we are also seeing a recovery of the visionary thinking on which great businesses and great products are built. Companies like Silica, that have sustained their investment in their technical teams and their logistics now have the opportunity to play a part in bringing these innovations to market.
What would make life easier in 2010?
Our customers ability to ship product is dependent on a healthy supply chain, and this sustains all of our businesses. So my New Year wish is for everyone to focus more strongly on the supply chain, which will help smooth out the cycles we’ve been seeing. As an industry we’ve got a tendency to overproduce in a good market and undersupply in a weak one. If we can get to a situation where supply is better matched to demand that will lead to more stable pricing and availability for the end customer and a more sustainable business environment for us all.
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