So the downturn is upon us, the US is officially in recession, semiconductor sales are on the skids again and everybody's asking when it will all end.
It depends who you ask. Future Horizons Chairman and CEO Malcolm Penn predicts a tough first half next year followed by the start of a bounce back in the second half. He may well be right though the second half of the year has been the life raft of many a forecaster and budgeteer in the industry. It reminds me of the remark by ST Chief Economist Jean-Phillipe Dauvin, "In my next life I will only live in the second half of the year."
Now Roy Avnet, CEO of Avnet has put his head above the parapet and says he is hopeful the worst will be over by mid next year. Speaking to Paul Kunert, Chief Reporter of Microscope magazine, Vallee said, "I suspect by the middle of next year we will have seen the worst and while we may still be in a recessionary environment we'll be seeing improvements quarter on quarter in the economy." For more go to http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2008/11/24/44991/worst-could-be-over-by-mid-2009-says-avnet-ceo.htm
Speaking to National Semiconductor CEO Brian Halla at the recent electronica show he too predicted a turnround in Q3 next year, though smiling and sticking his finger in the air as he said it didn't imbue this listener with confidence.
Neither did it impress a fellow semiconductor CEO who responded to Halla's prediction with a vigorous "How the hell does he know. Nobody knows?" I have deleted the odd expletive for more sensitive readers.
One thing we do know is the industry is resilient and there are plenty who still see opportunities out there. "Companies are still starting designs," says Avnet Memec Europe President Steve Haynes. And the continued penetration of electronics into new applications can also act as a cushion, the lighting sector being a good recent example. But the short answer to Does anyone really know with any certainty when things will start to pick up is probably not.
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