Does anyone really know how next year will work out? I reckon there are still too many uncertainties about how effective stimulus packages will be, whether banks will start to lend again - to sensible people that is - and will consumers decide saving is better than spending.
My take is a tough year ahead and glimmers of hope towards year end, and if I'm wrong I'll be a happy chappie. I do look for optimism, it's my natural trait. I'm the guy who can be 5-0 down at football and kid myself we're still in with a chance.
So I bring you Bill McClean of IC Insights who got me nodding appreciatively with his 2009 forecasts for the semiconductor industry.
Lower interest rates, lower oil prices and China's growth all factor into McClean's prediction of a first half decline followed by a march back to growth in the second half of 2009. His view is to take it quarter by quarter. So there will be decline in Q1 and Q2 before Q3 sees growth coming back to the industry.
Now be clear IC Insights is still predicting a grim 16% decline in 2009 over 2008, but by late summer the poison may be draining from the economic system and says McClean, a better business environment will prevail.
Hopefully the channel can track this upturn. A quick burn off of the excess inventory would be helpful.
The channel's resourcefulness will also see it through. Investments in the Internet and web sites which make it easier to find information as well as buy product will be crucial in 2009,offering the ability to do more business online and cut back costs.
Design expertise will be a core strength. Projects are still going ahead out there, and customers will look to distribution for technical support, maybe more so if economies are being made in their own companies.
So with those thoughts I wish you all a Happy and Healthy New Year.
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